Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axpz20 knhc 300910 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 30 2017Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC....Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...ITCZ extends from 05n96w to 02n130w. No significant convection associated with the ITCZ. A surface trough reaches from 12n107w to 06n119w. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of trough between 110w and 113w....Discussion...Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...A ridge extends se from high pressure centered near 33n140w to the revillagigedo islands. Moderate breezes off Baja California will increase north of 27n late Friday through Saturday as a weak cold front off the coast of Southern California pushes into the area. Winds will diminish Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds over the area. Seas will remain 8 to 9 ft in northwest swell off the entire Baja California coastline today, then decay below 8 ft off Baja California sur. Swell will remain 7 to 9 ft off Baja California norte through the weekend.The cold front will support a brief period of strong northwest winds and near gale westerly gap winds over the far northern Gulf of California late tonight into Friday. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest winds will persist across the Gulf of California through the period.Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the rest of the week.Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...Gap wind events are not expected to be very significant the next several days across the Central American coastal and offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected to prevail over the forecast waters the next several days.Remainder of the area...Strong 1030 mb high pressure located near 33n140w dominates the forecast waters north of 20n. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure near the Equator is supporting fresh trade winds from roughly 12n to 20n west of 130w. Seas in this area are 8 to 11 ft, in a mix of long period northwest swell and shorter period northeast wind waves. The aerial extent of the trades will diminish through Friday as the high moves west and weakens slightly. Marine conditions over the forecast region will change little during the next few days under the influence of this broad ridge. Large NW swell associated with a stalling cold front NW of the area will reach the northwest part of the forecast area Saturday night with seas building to 10-13 ft by Sunday evening.$$ Mundell
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