Tropical Weather Discussion

axpz20 knhc 160328

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jan 16 2018

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0215 UTC.

...Special features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: gale force winds continue 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, but are diminishing very 
slowly in strength and areal coverage from recent days. Peak 
seas downwind of the Gulf are as high as 15 ft presently.
Winds will continue to diminish slightly, though remain above 
gale force through Tue. A cold front will move into the Gulf of 
Mexico on Tue with associated high pressure building behind the 
front to tighten the pressure gradient over the area. This will 
again increase winds to strong gale across Tehuantepec Tue 
afternoon through night. Winds are expected to finally diminish 
below gale force by Friday. The resultant plume of NE swell have 
propagated southwestward, currently reaching as far W as 120w. 

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough... 

A surface trough extends from 05n77w to 10n86w to 05n91w. The 
ITCZ extends from 05n91w to 09n123w to beyond 09n140w. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted from 00n to 10n between 
80w and 88w. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04n to 
08n between 91w and 102w. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted within 90 nm N and 60 nm S of ITCZ between 
111w and 140w, except for scattered moderate to strong from 06n 
to 11n between 121w and 130w.


Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...

W of the Baja California peninsula: large NW swell that 
generated very high surf of 30-40 ft across the Hawaiian islands 
this past weekend is propagating into the area forecast waters 
tonight. Buoys offshore of Southern California showed wave 
periods in the 19 to 22 second range this evening, with seas of 
8 to 12 ft. This NW swell will build across the regional 
forecast waters tonight through late Tue and peak at 10 to 13 ft 
W of Baja California Tue afternoon through Tue night, and at 7 
to 10 ft across the remaining offshore waters between baja and 
Tehuantepec Tue night through late Wed. This large swell will 
generate very high and powerful surf along the coasts and outer 
reefs of baja and Mainland Mexico through Wed. Another surge of 
NW swell will reach the offshore waters off Baja California 
norte Thursday night. Seas associated to this swell will peak 
near 16 ft by Friday. Seas 12 ft or greater will spread across 
the offshore waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula 
through the weekend. 

Gulf of california: light to moderate NW flow is forecast across 
across the entire Gulf waters through Fri. 

See special feature section for information about the 
ongoing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador... 

Nocturnal winds will pulse to strong across and downwind of the 
Gulf of papagayo the remainder of the week. Elsewhere N of 09n 
gentle to moderate gap winds will diminish to light to gentle by 
midweek, with mixed swell maintaining seas 4 to 7 ft before the 
strong NW swell arrives early Thu, raising seas to 5-8 ft. 
S of 09n light to gentle winds will prevail.

Remainder of the area...

Large, long period NW swell is propagating se across the 
forecast waters tonight. Seas W of 120w are building to 10 to 18 
ft, with highest seas still over the far northwestern waters. 
The swell will move se across the discussion area while slowly 
subsiding through late Tuesday. By Tuesday, seas 8 ft or greater 
covering much of the forecast waters W of 107w, and then W of 
100w by Wednesday. A fresh pulse of large NW swell will enter 
the NW waters Wednesday night, with seas peaking near 20 ft. 
This swell will build seas greater than 12 ft over much of the 
waters N of 15n and W of 120w by Sat night. 



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