Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1431 UTC Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...

A weak surface trough extends from 06n77w to 03n90w to 03n112w. 
The ITCZ continues from 03n112w to 01n140w. Isolated moderate
convection is within about 210 nm N of trough between 98w and 
110w.

...Discussion...

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...  

A strong persistent ridge continues to dominate the offshore 
forecast waters west of Baja California, and extends through 
30n130w to beyond the revillagigedo islands to about 18n107w. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in 
NW swell are noted across the region under the influence of the 
ridge. On Thu, a cold front moving across the waters N of Punta 
eugenia will bring increasing winds and building seas. As a
result, expect fresh to strong W to NW winds and a new set of 
long period NW swell, with seas of 9 to 13 ft. 

Gulf of california: winds and seas are forecast to also increase
across the northern Gulf of California tonight through early Fri
as the aforementioned cold front crosses the area. Expect SW to 
W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the front, with mainly 
fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are forecast to build to 
near 8 or 9 ft Thu afternoon through Thu night. 

Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and 
within 750 nm of Ecuador...

Gulf of papagayo: fresh to strong winds are forecast across the 
Gulf of papagayo most of the forecast period, but mainly during 
the overnight and early morning hours, with the assistance of the
nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the 
easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to
7 or 8 ft. 

Gulf of panama: mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Panama through sun, with seas of 3 
to 5 ft today and tonight, then seas will slightly subside to 2 
to 4 ft the remainder of the forecast period.

Remainder of the area... 

Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian
islands will move ENE and weaken some during the next 24 hours. 
Its ridge axis extends across the northern forecast waters to 
beyond the revillagigedo islands to 18n107w. The pressure 
difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering 
across the Hawaiian islands area is producing a tight pressure 
gradient across the west-central waters, particularly from 10n to
26n W of 135w based on the latest scatterometer data. Seas 
generated by these winds, combined with long period NW swell are 
resulting in an area of seas of 8 ft or greater covering most of 
the waters W of 110w. The areal extent of these winds will 
diminish on Thu as the low pressure north of the Hawaiian islands
moves toward the N. Seas will gradually subside W of 110w over 
the next couple of days, but a new set of long period NW swell 
will reach the NE waters on Thu. Seas of 8 to 13 ft in NW to N
swell will dominate roughly the area N of 24n E of 132w.

$$
Gr


		
		

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