Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 220020

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
720 PM EST Wed Nov 21 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC. 

...Special features...

Gale Warning is forecast for 23/1200 UTC within 90 nm N 
semicircle of 1015 mb low centered at 28n78w. Winds are forecast  
30-35 kt with seas 10 to 15 ft. See the latest High Seas Forecast
product under AWIPS/WMO headers hsfat2/fznt02 knhc.

Gale Warning is forecast for areas Irving and Madeira after
22/1200 UTC. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast,
that is listed on the website: www.Meteofrance.Com/previsions- 

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of W Africa
near the Sierra Leone/Guinea border near 09n13w to 07n17w. The 
ITCZ continues from 07n17w to 05n26w to 02n40w to 02n48w.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03n-05n between 15w-21w. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03s-10n 
between 30w-38w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 26n80w
to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25n90w. A stationary front
continues to the NW Gulf near 25n96w to the Bay of Campeche near
18n94w. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from
24n-29n between 91w-96w. 20-25 kt N winds are W of the stationary

Low pressure developing along the front Thu will generate strong 
winds within 120 nm of the Texas coast. Winds and seas will 
subside on Fri as the low and front gradually weaken. A new cold 
front will move into the NW Gulf sun. This front will reach from 
South Florida to the Bay of Campeche Mon night. 

Caribbean Sea...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea. An area 
of widely scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
from 08n-15n between 78w-86w to include portions of Nicaragua,
Costa Rica , and Panama. The remainder of the Caribbean has 
mostly fair weather. In the upper levels a large upper level high 
is centered over Venezuela near 10n69w, that dominates the entire
Caribbean. An area of subsidence is over the Leeward and Windward

Fresh to occasionally strong winds will continue
along the coast of Colombia through Thu, decreasing on Fri. Fresh
to strong winds will return to the waters off the coast of
Colombia Monday night. Long period NE swell over the Atlantic 
will continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles 
through Thu.

Atlantic Ocean...

As of 21/2100 UTC, a cold front passes through 32n67w in the W
Atlantic to S Florida near 26n80w. Further E, an old stationary 
front extends from 32n58w to to the central Bahamas near 24n78w.
Isolated moderate convection is within 30 nm of the stationary
front. A surface trough extends from 26n67w to Hispaniola near
19n71w. Scattered showers within 90 nm of the trough. A 1022 mb
high is centered over the central Atlantic near 28n50w. A cold
front is over the E Atlantic from 32n09w to 26n20w to a 1016 mb 
low near 24n30w. The cold front continues to 21n40w. Scattered 
showers are within 90 nm of the front. Another 1014 mb low is 
centered over the E Atlantic near 19n28w. Scattered showers are 
within 120 nm of the low. 

Expect a reinforcing front to push into the northern waters Thu. 
Low pressure will form along this front near the northern Bahamas 
on Fri, producing gale force winds as it intensifies and tracks NE
off the se coast of the United States through Sat night. Seas 
outside the Bahamas will build to between 10 and 16 ft Fri through
Sat night. A new cold front will move off the southeast coast of 
the United States Monday.

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