Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 201143

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
643 am EST Wed Feb 20 2019

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...Special features...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

High pressure over the tropical Atlantic continues to build 
westward across the Caribbean, which will tighten the pressure 
gradient over the coast of Colombia. This will result in gale- 
force winds pulsing each night across this area and south-central 
Caribbean through sun. A gale is presently in effect until 
20/1500 UTC within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia with seas to 12 
ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under 
AWIPS/WMO headers fznt02 knhc/hsfat2, or at website 
https://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/text/miahsfat2.Shtml, for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 09n13w to 02n20w. 
The ITCZ continues from this point to 03s30w to the coast of 
South America near 04s39w. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is from 00n-05n between 03w-20w. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is from 05n-05s between 21w-31w. Scattered 
moderate convection is also from 05n-09n between 38w-58w. 

Gulf of Mexico...

At 20/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from SW Louisiana near 30n93w
to NW Mexico near 24n98w. A stationary front extends E from the 
the Florida Panhandle near 31n87w to Daytona Beach Florida near 
29n81w. Satellite imagery shows overcast stratus clouds and fog W 
of the cold front and N of the stationary front. Radar imagery 
shows scattered showers over N Florida. 10-20 kt southerly winds 
are over most of the Gulf of Mexico E of the cold front. 

The cold front will stall from se Louisiana to off the coast of 
Veracruz in the SW Gulf today, before lifting north as a warm 
front through Thu, followed by moderate to fresh se flow through 
Fri. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late Sat, 
and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Western Bay of Campeche
by sun evening.

Caribbean Sea...

Please refer to the special features section above for more 
details about the Gale Warning in effect over the south-central 
Caribbean waters near Colombia.

Recent scatterometer pass and surface observations indicate fresh
to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin, with 
strongest winds just north of Colombia. Scattered quick moving 
showers are moving with the trades over the basin. Dry air in the 
mid-to-upper levels of the atmosphere continues to dominate the 

High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds over mainly the central Caribbean and north of 
Honduras, with gales pulsing off Colombia most nights through Sun 
night. N to NE swell will build over Atlantic waters E of the 
windward and Leeward Islands on Thu and continue through sun.

Atlantic Ocean... 

A frontal system extends from the central Atlantic near 31n40w to
27n60w to 27n72w. A stationary front continues to 30n79w to N of 
Daytona Florida near 30n81w. Scattered showers are within 90 nm N
of the front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 26n32w
to 18n32w. 

Over the W Atlantic, the portion of the front W of 75w will lift 
N of the area as a warm front through early Wed, while the 
portion east of 75w will dissipate over the se waters Wed night. 
Surface high pressure will become established across the region 
on Thu and will prevail through the weekend. 

For additional information please visit 



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