Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 170600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/170600z-180600znov2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/162051znov2017//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone formation alert.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 90w) previously located 
near 7.7n 121.8e, is now located near 8.7n 120.7e, approximately 130 
nm east-southeast of Puerto princesa, Philippines. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery depicts a large area of disorganized 
convection over a consolidating low level circulation. Upper level 
analysis puts 90w in a region of low (5-10 knot) vertical wind 
shear, but with good upper level divergence and generally westward 
outflow due to a point source to the northeast of the disturbance. 
Sea surface temperatures are still favorably warm (28-29 celsius) in 
the sulu sea and eastern South China Sea. Global dynamic models 
generally favor development once 90w crosses into the South China 
Sea, reaching 25 knot intensity as early as 171200z. Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 18 to 23 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1005 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains high. See ref a (wtpn21 pgtw 162100) for further 
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.//

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