Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 211130
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/211130z-220600zjul2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/210751zjul2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/210752zjul2017//
ref/c/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/210753zjul2017//
ref/d/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/210421zjul2017//
narr/refs a, b and c are tropical cyclone warnings. Ref d is a
/tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 210600z, tropical depression 07w (Noru) was located 
near 28.2n 155.7e, approximately 257 nm north-northeast of minami 
tori shima, and had tracked westward at 10 knots over the past six 
hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 30 knots 
gusting to 40 knots. See ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 210900) for further 
details.
      (2) at 210600z, tropical depression 08w (eight) was located 
near 17.8n 113.7e, approximately 271 nm south of Hong Kong, and had 
tracked west-northwestward at 11 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 30 knots gusting 
to 40 knots. See ref b (wtpn32 pgtw 210900) for further details.
      (3) at 210600z, tropical storm 09w (kulap) was located near 
26.5n 177.1e, approximately 723 nm northeast of Wake Island, and had 
tracked northward at 10 knots over the past six hours. Maximum 
sustained surface winds were estimated at 35 knots gusting to 45 
knots. See ref c (wtpn33 pgtw 210900) for further details.
      (4) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 97w) previously located 
near 25.5n 177.2e is now the subject of a tropical cyclone warning. 
See para. 1.A.(3) for further details.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 98w) has persisted near 
18.1n 124.7e, approximately 366nm southeast of kaohsiung, Taiwan. 
Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts a rapidly 
consolidating, small (240nm diameter) low-level circulation center 
(LLCC) with improving deep convective banding. A 210135z metop-b 
89ghz image shows curved convective banding wrapping into the LLCC. 
A 210138z partial ascat image reveals 20 to 25 knot winds over the 
eastern semi-Circle of the circulation. Upper-level analysis and 
animated water vapor imagery indicate a favorable environment with 
diffluent outflow aloft and low to moderate vertical wind shear. 
Global models are having problems resolving the small system but 
indicate a general northwestward track with no significant 
development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 
25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours remains high. See ref d 
(wtpn21 pgtw 210430) for further details.
      (3) an area of convection (invest 99w) has persisted near 6.0n 
135.0e, approximately 114 nm southeast of Palau. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery depicts a partially exposed and 
broad low-level circulation center (LLCC) with persistent 
convection. A 210044z metop-a 89ghz image depicts a large area of 
persistent deep convection over the southern semi-Circle associated 
with a strong westerly wind burst. A 210045z partial ascat image 
shows 25 to 30 knot winds over the southern semi-Circle of the 
circulation with 15 to 20 knot winds elsewhere. The upper-level 
analysis reveals a favorable environment with good diffluence aloft 
and low vertical wind shear. Global models indicate steady 
development within the next 48 hours as the system tracks northward 
parallel to the eastern coast of the Philippines. Maximum sustained 
surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level 
pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. The potential for the 
development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours remains medium. 
      (4) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in paragraph 1.B.(1) to 
warning status and updated the tropical cyclone warning summary 
section.//
Nnnn

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