U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 291249 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 291248 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0748 am CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 


Valid 291300z - 301200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern 
portions of the Southern Plains into the middle and lower 
Mississippi Valley... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from eastern 
portions of the Southern Plains through the middle and lower 
Mississippi Valley... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms surrounding the 
slight risk area... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms are expected later today into tonight from 
parts of East Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas into the 
lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Very large hail, tornadoes (a 
couple of which could be strong) and damaging wind are all possible. 


..East Texas and Oklahoma, southeast Kansas into the middle and 
lower Mississippi Valley areas... 


Ongoing line of storms moving through eastern OK, extreme western Arkansas 
and southeast Texas should continue a gradual diminishing trend as it 
advances east this morning, though an isolated strong wind gust or 
two cannot be ruled out over southeast Texas. The expansive convective 
debris will delay destabilization until at least early afternoon 
when pockets of diabatic warming and northward advection of modified 
Continental polar air should contribute to some boundary-layer 
recovery and a corridor of 500-1500 j/kg MLCAPE from eastern 
portions of the Southern Plains to the lower to middle MS valley. 
Initial surface low has consolidated over eastern OK this morning in 
association with a lead northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough. 
This feature will move very slowly northeast into southeast Kansas 
during the day while weaker secondary cyclogenesis is possible 
farther south across Arkansas during the evening as another lobe of 
vorticity rotates through the base of the upper trough accompanied 
by a strengthening secondary branch of the low-level jet. 


Current indication is that additional storms will likely develop 
from southeast Kansas through eastern OK and eastern Texas this afternoon 
in corridor of stronger destabilization and within the evolving 
pre-frontal confluent flow regime. This activity will subsequently 
move east into southern MO, Arkansas and la. Mid-level jet rotating 
through the base of the upper trough will contribute to favorable 
vertical shear profiles for supercells, and low-level hodographs 
will support potential for a few low-level mesocyclones and 
tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong) especially as storms 
move east into Arkansas and southern MO where strengthening low-level jet 
will be maximized during the late afternoon into the evening. 
Initially discrete modes will promote a risk for very large hail and 
a few tornadoes, but tendency will be for storms to consolidate into 
lines by mid-late evening which suggest primary threat should 
eventually transition to damaging wind overnight. Due to the 
stabilizing effects of morning convection which will delay and 
potentially limit boundary layer recovery, will not introduce a 
moderate risk at this time but continue to evaluate during the next 
update. 


.Dial/grams.. 03/29/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 290754 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 290754 
okz000-txz000-290930- 


Mesoscale discussion 0366 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0254 am CDT Wed Mar 29 2017 


Areas affected...northeast Texas and far southeast OK 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96...97... 


Valid 290754z - 290930z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 96, 97 
continues. 


Summary...an increasingly confined corridor for strong to embedded 
severe wind gusts is anticipated as a bowing qlcs over the metroplex 
approaches the Red River. Downstream ww issuance is unlikely. 


Discussion...primary zone of strong to embedded severe wind gusts 
within an extensive qlcs from central OK to south-central Texas exists 
within the bowing portion of the line currently traversing the 
metroplex and adjacent north-central Texas. Air mass downstream towards 
the Red River is characterized by lower surface dew points from the 
upper 50s to lower 60s and weak buoyancy relative to farther south. 
With a decreasing reflectivity gradient to the south of the Bow, 
likely due to continued ingest of large mlcin, the overall area of 
strong to embedded severe wind gusts should decrease in the next few 
hours. 


.Grams/dial.. 03/29/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...shv...tsa...fwd...oun... 


Latitude...Lon 33769714 34099690 34569607 34499488 34289474 33699477 
32819529 32579578 32609661 33769714