- Day Three
acus02 kwns 111730
Storm Prediction Center ac 111730
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 am CST Tue Dec 11 2018
Valid 121200z - 131200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorms are expected to develop across a portion of southeast
and East Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night.
However, the risk for severe weather still appears low at this time.
..eastern Texas through western la...
A shortwave trough currently over Southern California will accelerate
eastward in response to an upstream impulse, reaching central and
southern Texas late Wednesday night. The surface cyclone that will
develop in response to this feature is forecast to be located over
north central Texas with a Pacific cold front extending southward to
near del Rio by the end of this period.
As of mid day Tuesday, northeast trajectories are maintaining the
advection of modified Continental polar air across the western Gulf
with near surface dewpoints mostly in the 40s f. Surface winds will
veer to southerly over the western Gulf and eastern Texas early
Wednesday as high pressure over the southeast U.S. Moves farther
east. This will result in northward advection of modifying
Continental polar air with dewpoints reaching the low 50s f over
northeast Texas to low 60 f along the Texas coast tomorrow night. A
corridor of weak instability (mucape at or below 500 j/kg) should
evolve from the Texas coastal area through east central Texas overnight.
Storms are expected to develop along evolving warm conveyor belt and
zone of deepening ascent from southeast through East Texas as the
shortwave trough approaches Wednesday night. Vertical wind profiles
including size of low-level hodographs will increase within this
zone, but current indications are that moisture return will probably
be insufficient for complete removal of the near-surface stable
layer, and storms will remain slightly elevated which, along with
the very marginal thermodynamic environment, should limit overall
severe threat. For this reason will not introduce any severe
probabilities at this time, but at least a marginal risk category
might be needed in day 1 updates.
..maximum risk by hazard...
Tornado: <2% - none
wind: <5% - none
hail: <5% - none