U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus02 kwns 161636 
Storm Prediction Center ac 161635 

Day 2 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1135 am CDT Tue Oct 16 2018 

Valid 171200z - 181200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

isolated convective showers and a few thunderstorms are possible 
over Florida on Wednesday. 

A split upper-level flow pattern on Wednesday will feature a 
longwave trough in the east and a low in the Desert Southwest. A 
frontal zone over the central Gulf Coast will push into the northern 
Gulf of Mexico as surface high pressure strengthens over the middle 
MS valley. A couple of general thunderstorms are possible over Florida 
and scattered thunderstorm activity is possible over the western 
half of the Gulf of Mexico. Poor lapse rates and a weak wind 
profile will preclude strong thunderstorm development over Florida. 

..maximum risk by hazard... 
Tornado: <2% - none 
wind: <5% - none 
hail: <5% - none 

.Smith.. 10/16/2018