U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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000 
acus01 kwns 241247 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 241245 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0745 am CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 


Valid 241300z - 251200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion 
of the southeast states... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over a portion 
of New Mexico... 


... 
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds will be 
possible over portions of the southeast today, with isolated severe 
hail and strong winds over parts of New Mexico. 


..southeast states... 


A cold front from the northeast states through the southern 
Appalachians will continue southeast today. A moist warm sector with 
low 70s f dewpoints resides over this region. The atmosphere will 
become moderately unstable especially over the Carolinas with 1500 
j/kg MLCAPE as the boundary layer warms. Storms are expected to 
redevelop along the front and over the higher terrain and will 
intensify as they intercept the moist and unstable warm sector. This 
region resides along the southern fringe of moderate winds aloft 
associated with a northern-stream upper trough with 30-35 kt 
effective bulk shear supportive of multicells and weak mid-level 
updraft rotation. Storms may produce a few instances of strong to 
damaging wind gusts as they develop east through the Carolinas this 
afternoon. 


..New Mexico... 


Widespread low clouds have spread into nm within Post-frontal regime 
east of higher terrain, and these clouds might persist much of 
today. However, diabatic warming over the higher terrain with steep 
lapse rates will likely Foster modest /500-800 j/kg/ MLCAPE and the 
development of storms during the afternoon. Wind profiles are 
sufficient for some mid-level updraft rotation with storms 
developing over northern nm. Otherwise, multicells with isolated 
downburst winds and hail are expected from later this afternoon into 
early evening. 


..central through south central Texas... 


Storms will continue to propagate southward today along a large 
consolidated outflow boundary across south central Texas under the 
influence of light northerly winds aloft. The warm sector is 
moderately unstable with modest mid-level lapse rates. A few strong 
wind gusts may occur with some of this activity, but overall threat 
appears limited. 


.Dial/picca.. 06/24/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


000 
acus11 kwns 241054 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 241054 
nyz000-ctz000-njz000-paz000-dez000-241200- 


Mesoscale discussion 1145 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0554 am CDT Sat Jun 24 2017 


Areas affected...portions of the mid-Atlantic 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 241054z - 241200z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...strong showers and storms may be capable of localized wind 
damage and perhaps a brief tornado. However, the threat should be 
too brief/localized for watch issuance. 


Discussion...as of 1045z, a line of strong showers and thunderstorms 
was quickly advancing across New Jersey and adjacent New York, aided 
by a passing low-amplitude shortwave trough. Kdix vwp data indicate 
a kinematic profile characterized by strong low/mid-level flow 
upwards of 50-60 kt. In turn, precipitation-drag may Transfer some 
of this momentum to the surface, resulting in localized 
gusty/damaging winds. However, the thermodynamic profile will remain 
quite marginal for a more widespread threat. Additionally, while the 
strength of the low-level shear may offer an opportunity for a brief 
tornado, orientation of the low-level shear vectors is fairly 
parallel to the convective line. As such, the tornado threat appears 
quite marginal as well, and watch issuance will not be needed prior 
to the line pushing offshore. 


.Picca/dial.. 06/24/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...okx...phi... 


Latitude...Lon 39017569 40467480 41097390 41177247 40537255 39407361 
38597460 38587486 38727544 39017569