U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 220714 
Storm Prediction Center ac 220713 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0113 am CST Fri Feb 22 2019 

Valid 241200z - 251200z 

..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms along the 
central Gulf Coast... 

A few strong storms may occur Sunday morning along the central Gulf 

..central Gulf Coast... 

Strong upper trough that ejects across the mid MS valley/Ohio Valley 
region late in the day2 period will flatten heights across the 
northeastern US Sunday. Associated deep surface low will lift into 
qc during the day and occlude. While primary large-scale forcing for 
ascent will spread well north of appreciable buoyancy, trailing 
surface front is expected to provide the focus for deep convection, 
especially near the Gulf Coast. The greatest risk for a few strong 
storms will occur before 18z from southeast la into the Florida Panhandle 
ahead of the wind shift. Model guidance suggests a narrow corridor 
of pre-frontal moisture will advance inland such that near-surface 
based instability could support a few strong storms along southern 
fringe of stronger cyclonic flow aloft. At this time it appears 
gusty winds would be the primary threat with a loosely organized 
frontal squall line. Frontal convection should weaken during the 
afternoon as it encounters increasingly hostile air mass downstream. 

.Darrow.. 02/22/2019