U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180741 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0241 am CDT Sat Aug 18 2018 


Valid 201200z - 211200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the 
Lower/Middle Mississippi River valley to Tennessee Valley... 


... 
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the 
Lower/Middle Mississippi River valley to Tennessee Valley. 


..Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley to Tennessee/Ohio valleys... 
A shortwave trough will continue to spread east-northeastward over 
the middle Mississippi River valley and Midwest on Monday. Even 
while this system will begin to lose amplitude, a belt of seasonally 
strong low/mid tropospheric winds will continue to overspread parts 
of the mid-south, Tennessee Valley into the lower Ohio Valley. The 
potential for relatively widespread cloud cover and precipitation 
should limit the overall magnitude of the severe risk. Regardless, 
potentially influenced by differential heating and outflows, storms 
should diurnally redevelop and intensify along, or more so, ahead of 
a cold front amidst moist/confluent low-level flow during the 
afternoon. While considerable uncertainty exists regarding the exact 
degree of destabilization, especially with northward extent into the 
Midwest/Ohio Valley, flow fields generally characterized by 30-35 kt 
effective shear magnitudes would support sustained multicells and a 
few supercells capable of primarily wind damage Monday afternoon and 
evening. 


.Guyer.. 08/18/2018 


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