My name is Mavrikios and i am an economist. One of my hobbies is trying to predict the occurrence of earthquakes with available data on the internet.
By: MavrikiosZMavroudes , 11:41 PM GMT on March 17, 2017
Two earthquakes that happened in Skopia and Salonica ( links A and B) during the few previous months reveal that the ray-path -iPg & +iPg ( or diPg & ciPg) is not relevant to the destructiveness of earthquakes. It is more possible that Pernik's, Bulgaria, destructive earthquakes are due to a 6km layer of sediments that lies underneath (image1).
The scientific fact is that two earthquakes happened within my specifications that were not destructive. This compels me to look for another 'filter', that is another parameter in order to explain the phenomenon. The only one I have not used is sediments, which I already included in order to explain Nepal's earthquake. But now removing Pernik's earthquake from my sample I am left with only one success in three observations and therefore my assumption, that is that this specific ray-path is relevant, can be attributed to luck. Accepting this, prompts me to merge the two types of destructive earthquakes I specified, 'normal' and 'Bulgarian', into just one.
I remind here my basic findings about this normal type:
Sediments can 'upgrade' the destruction; aftershocks of an equally destructive (or should be*) main-shock can be as destructive without showing all the preconditions specified for main-shocks; magnitude of main-shocks must be 4.9 or bigger, an eP and an ePn should be present, in case of strike slips an L-wave of some type must be present too, and the following combinations of hypocenter depth and moment tensor solution must be present: normal fault at 2k or less, strike slip at 5km or less, thrust fault at 10 or less and steep, frontal thrust fault (dip>75, slip: 75~105) at 33 or less.
* or should be equally destructive: sometimes main-shocks happen at bigger depth than aftershocks.
P.s. In the case of Nepal's and Pernik's earthquakes where the sediments' influence was present the shake-up area maps include the area that sediments lie. (Links 1 - 4)
Link A: http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.ph p?id=529942#summary
Link B: http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.ph p?id=546593
Link 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Pernik_earthqu ake
Link2: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage /us20002926#shakemap
Link 3: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage /us20002ejl#executive
Link 4: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage /us200029bt#executive
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
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