marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 126 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
At 12z a high pressure ridge was across much of the pz5 and pz6 waters, while a 1027 mb low was located just offshore of the Southern California waters. Available ascat high resolution observations revealed 20-30 kt winds over the pz5 waters with 10-20 kt winds over the southern pz6 waters roughly east of 122w.
With the 12z guidance in agreement over most of the period felt it was reasonable to favor the 12z GFS through Tuesday 12z, allowing existing grids to continue beyond that period. Result is not much change in warning headlines in the near time as a period of gales are expected over parts of the pz5 waters later tonight into Sunday as low pressure slides into western Canada with enhanced winds in the northwest flow in the western semicircle of the low. Continue to anticipate gales over parts of the northern pz6 waters later Monday into early Tuesday as low pressure strengthens over the southwest U.S. While interacting with broad high pressure over the eastern Pacific. By late day 4 into day 5 am expecting low pressure over the pz5 waters. Despite some differences among the 12z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET in terms of the exact location of the low, giving the prior two forecast held onto warnings headlines, feel it's reasonable to do so now considering model consistency at least in terms of placing a low in the general area.
.Seas...Favored 12z ww3 through Tuesday 12z transitioning to existing grids beyond that point.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Sunday. Gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight into Sunday. Gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale possible Wednesday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Wednesday night.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz825...inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Monday night. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Monday night.
.Forecaster Holley. Ocean prediction center.