Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 733 am PDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

No significant changes to the forecast anticipated at this time.

Cold front still progged to move into the offshore waters tonight and Fri, with possibility of gales developing in the southerly flow ahead of the front as it nears the Oregon and northern California coast Fri. Will leave current headlines as is for this package.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

AR 05z there was a ascatb pass across most of the WA/OR offshore waters...and across the inner N and central CA waters, and over much of the southern CA waters. The data showed low pressure over the inner or waters,the inner WA waters, and inner central CA waters. The strongest winds were to 15 kt and were over the S or se quadrant of each weak low pressure centers across the waters.

At ascatb indicated the 06z surface analysis had weak low pressure over the WA and or waters, and over the central CA waters with a cold front extending S over the central CA waters. Elsewhere about 480 nm to the W of the northern and central areas of the offshore a cold front was moving E towards the waters. Model guidance has the cold front just W of the offshore waters late this afternoon and crossing into the waters tonight and early Fri. Gem/GFS continues to support gales over the inner or waters by early Fri in advance of the front. Other model guidance such as the 00z ECMWF does show the strongest winds over the inner waters of or and northern CA, although not gale force. Will stay with headlines as they are. Another cold front approaches the WA/OR and northern CA waters sun and moves E over the waters Sun night. The GFS has low pressure moving E into the northern CA and or waters, while the ECMWF has low pressure staying just W of this region Sun night. Plan to stay with the 00z ECMWF and cap winds to 30 kt for now with the potential for gales, although not confident with the area.

.Seas...For seas the wave watch iii and the ECMWF wam are close in close agreement to observations. Plan to use the ww iii through about 12z sun, then use the ECMWF wam after 12z sun which is lower with seas associated in advance of the approaching cold front on Sun night.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz810...inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Friday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Friday.

.Pz6 California waters... None.

$$

.Forecaster achorn/Rowland. Ocean prediction center.

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