Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 631 PM PST sun Dec 16 2018

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The latest model guidance is indicating that the cold front currently moving southeast across the central and southern pz6 waters will dissipate by Monday. Farther north, another cold front will then move into the pz5 waters late Monday and then continue inland by Tuesday. For now will just continue to keep strong gales ahead of the front across the offshore waters and see what the latest model guidance indicates. Another low will then approach the pz5 waters by Wednesday night. For wind grids will continue to keep the current grids throughout the forecast period. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.

For wave height grids will also continue to use the current grids throughout the forecast period.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...The 18z estofs and etss guidance highlight the potential for a positive surge event that could occur Mon night into Tue along the Washington and northern Oregon coasts, with the higher surge values peaking around 1 ft. Consult the latest products from coastal NWS forecast offices for more information.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

The most recent satellite pictures show a cold front slowly moving inland. An altimeter pass from 18z shows seas to 30 ft moving into the northern California waters. This is a few feet higher than either the enp or wam indicated. The overall forecast pattern across the eastern Pacific will remain quite progressive during the upcoming week as a series of systems cross the waters. Especially over the northern portions. The 12z global models are in pretty good agreement, especially during the first few days, then the scenarios begin to diverge. I will populate the wind grids using the GFS through 18z Tue which allow good continuity from prior forecast, thereafter I will use the ECMWF for the remainder of the forecast period.

Seas...both the enp and wam were too low, especially S and E of the low center. The initial wave grids may need to be slightly adjusted to compensate for this. Once the swell dies down the waveheights become more reasonable. In general the enp was initialized better than the wam, even though the maximum wave heights were similar. I will use the same blend on the wave grids as used for the wind grids.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Monday. Gale possible Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale Monday. Gale Tuesday. Gale possible Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night into Thursday night. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Monday into Monday night. Gale possible Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale Monday. Gale possible Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night into Thursday. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Monday into Tuesday. Gale possible Thursday. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Monday into Monday night. Gale possible Wednesday night into Thursday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Monday into Tuesday. Gale possible Thursday. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Monday into Monday night. Gale possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Monday into Monday night. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale Monday into Monday night.

$$

.Forecaster nolt/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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