Marine Weather for HS 101

Forecast

marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...Gulf of Mexico...

High pressure over the western Atlantic will support mainly moderate to fresh winds over the basin through early next week. The strongest winds will be associated overnight with a thermal trough moving off the coast of the Yucatan and across the Eastern Bay of Campeche. Also, fresh return flow can be expected along the coast of Mexico west of 95w through Sunday. The tail end of a squall line has made it into the extreme northwest Gulf ahead of a cold front. This front is not expected to progress more than about 60 nm into the northern Gulf through tonight as the front continues to move eastward. However, the latest GFS now indicates pre-frontal convection reaching as far south as 27n over the eastern Gulf tonight. Another cold front will once again reach near the northern Gulf Coast mid week.

...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...

The pressure pattern across the Caribbean is weakening as low pressure develops northeast of Hispaniola. The pressure pattern will remain weak through Tuesday as the low moves north then northeast away from the Caribbean and weak high pressure settles over the Bahamas. This will support mainly moderate trades across the Caribbean through early next week. As the high becomes established Tuesday into Tuesday night over the Bahamas, fresh to locally strong easterly winds will become possible over the Gulf of Honduras.

A trough currently extending south from the developing low to near Aruba will weaken the next 24 hours. Through that time, upper level southwest winds and low level flow around the trough will support enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity across the Mona Passage, Puerto Rico, and southward to Aruba.

For the tropical Atlantic zones, 8 to 9 ft swell north of 15n will subside below 8 ft through the day Sunday. By mid week, a batch of 6 to 8 ft northerly swell will reach the waters north of 15n.

...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...

Latest visible satellite imagery shows that low pressure is beginning to form just northeast of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic near 19n68w. Recent 1406 UTC scatterometer pass caught the western edge of the strongest winds of 30 to 33 kt, north of the developing low along about 25n between about 64w and 70w, where the tight pressure gradient persists between strong high pressure to the north and the low and associated trough to the south. Since the low is now beginning to develop and pressures should fall, it is reasonable to believe that the near term forecast remains on track, with a gale beginning at 1800 UTC over the area north and east of the low where the pressure gradient should further tighten through tonight. A broad area of fresh to strong winds will also persist across our eastern waters, north of the low, as the low tracks north then northeast across our northeastern zones through Tuesday morning. This wind field will support seas of 10 to 17 ft north of the low, with 8 to 12 ft swell across the majority of the SW N Atlantic waters outside of the Bahamas today through Monday, with the higher seas becoming confined over the northeast zones Monday night through Wednesday. The low will exit the zones later on Tuesday with weak high pressure settling in over the Bahamas providing tranquil weather for our western zones for the middle of the week.

Models have been trending slightly stronger with this low the past few runs which has necessitated increasing winds through 48 hours to 40 kt and Max seas to 17-18 ft. It remains important to note that the strongest winds and highest seas continue to be forecast more than 120 nm from the low center across the northern portion of the low through Tuesday.

$$

.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:

.Gulf of Mexico... None.

.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.

.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... .amz113...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 70w and 77w... Gale Warning Mon. .Amz115...Atlantic from 27n to 31n between 65w and 70w... Gale Warning sun into Mon. Gale conditions possible Mon into Tue. .Amz121...Atlantic from 22n to 27n between 65w and 70w... Gale Warning today into Sun night.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php

For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster latto. National Hurricane Center.

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