marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 406 am EDT Fri Jun 23 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
Elongated circulation of Cindy moving NNE across the arklatex this morning with a convergent tail extending SSW from Mobile Bay and mouth of MS to ern Bay of Campeche. Models and obs suggest that this tail is weakening and winds spilling across and filling in across NW portions of Gulf where 20-25 kt SSE generally prevail W of 88-89w. Seas look to be 6-8 ft across se la-MS coastal waters and also across much of NW waters attm, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
Atlantic ridge will expand westward over the northern Gulf today through the weekend as Cindy lifts out, with ridge Saturday night, with winds diminishing by afternoon and becoming more se tonight into Sat. Upper low and tropical wave Bret tandem to move NW across Yucatan next 24 hours and then more WNW across the central and W Gulf through sun to trigger convection across E portions of associated weak sfc trough, suggested by GFS to more likely across central Gulf zones and N of Bay of Campeche.
On Sunday, models show a cold front will approach the northern Gulf Coast and briefly stall before sinking slowly to along the coast Mon-Tue. This to increase chances for showers and thunderstorms over that portion of the basin.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Tropical wave formerly known as Bret, interacting with the upper low that it has been moving in tandem with past few days across the NW Carib for line of active weather extending SSE into Colombia. Earlier scat pass showed 20-25 kt ESE inflow winds into line just S of Caymans where seas were likely 7-8 ft. These conditions expected to continue through sunrise before diminishing. E of this area, moderate to fresh Ely trades prevail, while light and variable winds across the SW Carib has displaced the Colombian speed Max farther N than typical, to just N of 13n where peak seas of 6-8 ft are found. Wave and upper low to shift WNW across the Yucatan next 24 hours. Atlc ridge will shift every so slightly W during this time with wind flow across NW portions backing to ESE and Max winds off Colombia returning to climo position of 11-13n.
The Atlantic ridge will strengthen slightly tonight through Monday night and tighten the pressure gradient over the south- central Caribbean supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds and seas to 8-9 ft.
A low lat tropical wave over the se Carib and S America will move W and remain S of 14n the weekend, while next energetic wave currently about 44w will move across tropical N Atlc waters Sat and Sat night and through the se Carib Sunday. A very large tropical wave exiting Africa will reach the central Atlc by Mon with a large area of sal and extensive dust with reduced vsbys will ahead of this wave.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
High pressure will dominate the region over the next several days, with ridge axis to meander along 30n through the weekend. A weak front will reach the western Atlantic north of our waters Monday night, helping to erode the ridge axis temporarily across the NW zones late Mon and Tue. Modest strengthening of the ridge next couple of days will maintain fresh trades S of 23n and into se Bahamas through sun.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
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Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster stripling. National Hurricane Center.