marine weather discussion...updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 355 am EDT Mon Apr 23 2018
Updated Gulf of Mexico initial cold front position
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
A cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to 25n90w and to inland Tampico, Mexico as of 06z. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front N of 24n. Moderate northwesterly flow is following in behind the front per latest buoy reports as well as noted by land observations just inland the northwest and north-central Gulf coasts. The cold front will reach from near Apalachicola to 25n90w and inland Mexico near Coatzacoalcos this morning, from Apalachee Bay to 25n88w to Eastern Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and from near Tampa Bay to 24n89w and stationary to the Eastern Bay of Campeche early Tue. The cold front will slow down as it moves across the far se Gulf and Straits of Florida early Wed morning, then reach NW Cuba by late Wed night into early Thu, while the stationary portion remains from the Eastern Bay of Campeche to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Weak high pres will build across the area behind the front, however, another weak cold front is expected to move to just offshore the Texas coast early on Thu. This next cold front is expected to reach the eastern Gulf by Fri night, followed by gentle to moderate NW to N flow.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to strong trades near the coast of Colombia through Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds are also expected along the southern coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon. A weakening cold front will slowly move southeastward across the Yucatan basin on Tue night, and become diffuse Wed. A weak high pres center will become established over the NW Caribbean Wed through Fri night, and support anticyclonic flow of gentle winds there.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
The main features impacting the forecast waters are a stationary front that stretches from 27n65w westward to 27n77w and warm front to inland northern Palm Beach, and strong high pres that is present to the N and NE of this frontal boundary. Latest satellite imagery and NWS radar composite imagery reveal scattered showers and thunderstorms along and N of the frontal boundary from 27n to north of the area and west of about 75w. This activity is being further aided by a couple of shortwave troughs that are moving southeastward just to the N and NE of the Bahamas. Expect for this activity to increase in coverage through this afternoon, while it begins to shift eastward in response to an approaching cold front that is currently moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This front is attached to low pres that is over eastern Alabama early this morning.
This low, the models have been suggesting that it will continue to move eastward across the southeastern United States reaching south central Georgia today and tonight before turning northeastward and tracking towards the Carolinas Tue and Tue night. The pres gradient between the low and the Atlantic high pres has quickly tightened up, and has induced strong E to se winds over the northwest waters of the forecast area. These winds will increase to the intensity of strong to near gale force range this afternoon and tonight, with the winds to near gale force expected mainly north of 30n between 75w and 78w. Gale force winds are forecast for the waters just to the north of 31n and west of 75w beginning tonight. The near gale force winds over the far northern waters of the forecast area will diminish Tue as the low pulls farther away from the region. A weak cold front attendant to the low will move across the northwest portion of the forecast waters Tue through Wed, then slow down as it moves across the north-central waters Wed night and Thu at which time it is expected to become stationary and weaken through Fri. The warm front mentioned above will lift northeast of the area by Tue evening. Strong se to S winds ahead of the front will shift eastward to the northeast part of the area on Wed while diminishing in intensity. A second cold front will move across the far northwest portion of the area Wed night and Thu, but it is also expected to be rather weak as it slows down while progressing eastward over the western portion of the area on Fri.
E winds are pulsing to strong intensity along the coast of Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage. They will diminish to fresh intensity late this morning or early this afternoon. They will begin to pulse again this afternoon into late tonight, but over a smaller area near the coast of Hispaniola.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... None.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... none.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.